This past Tuesday (Jan. 26), Illinois State Treasurer Michael Frerichs announced that Illinois will invest more than $220 million in emerging tech companies, which he predicted will create an estimated 3,600 jobs over the the next three years. In an article in the current issue of Crain’s Chicago Business, Treasurer Frerichs is quoted as saying:
People ask how can you afford to make these investments at a time like this? I ask, how can you afford not to make these investments?”
In the mind of any thinking person, alarms should go off whenever someone answers a question with a question, and this goes double for public office holders such as Mr. Frerichs.
The real questions are why anyone should consider state government capable of picking winners among high-tech venture startups, and, more importantly, whether state government should be using public funds to pick winners in the first place.
Over the course of decades past, there have been some notable successes of government (principally federal, rather than state) sponsorship of R&D. After WWII, the U.S. Gov’t. sponsored research into turbine engines for use in jet fighter planes, including using what was valuable in jet engine technology Germany had developed during the war. Likewise, post-war federal investment in computer research for defense purposes started the computer revolution and gave us the internet that we have today.
But those are the success stories. Did Mr. Frerichs and everyone else at Crain’s forget about that Solyndra investment? Sure, it was an investment at the federal rather than the state level, but that’s a quibble. Loan guarantees for Solyndra are in essence no different from the $220 million in taxpayer funds that Illinois is about to plow into tech start-up ventures.
Plus, the feds get to play with much bigger chunks of change than the $220 million that Mr. Frerichs is talking about, which means that they have better odds of having at least a few successful companies amidst all the tech startups that wind up in the dustbin of market history.
According to the Treasurer’s press release, the $220 million “will come from existing investments and is not entangled in the state budget impasse that involves the General Revenue Fund.” Is that supposed to take a load off our minds? Could that money not be used for other, more pressing needs?
Frerichs asks how Illinois can not make such investments. Well, for starters, it’s been a few years now and Illinois still doesn’t have a budget. The City of Chicago is about to impose the largest real property tax increase since Fort Dearborn was disassembled and used for firewood. The Chicago Board of Ed is staring at a funding gap in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and there’s no sign of any fiscal cavalry riding to the rescue from Fort Springfield. To make matters worse (yes, they can get worse), one may reasonably ask whether the CPS financial debacle will require yet another real property tax increase.
The only safe conclusion is: no option is off the table.
But let’s turn back to picking winners for a moment. Mr. Frerichs will be investing public moneys indirectly, in venture funds managed by supposed investment pros, and not directly in the startup companies themselves. That’s a distinction without a difference. By investing indirectly, Illinois state government merely delegates, in part, winner-picking to the fund’s managers.
If I remember correctly, the Rauner administration is of the Republican persuasion. The gospel according to the Republican patron saint, Ronald of Reagan, tells us that “government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” I guess that gospel doesn’t apply when government is handing out money to venture capital funds.
Having the government pick winners, whether directly or indirectly, smells a lot like “government industrial policy,” which in turn smells a lot like (dare I say it?) … socialism. (!!!) There’s no evidence anywhere that any level of government, state or federal, is capable of picking winning technologies in the market. Sure, the turbine technology and the computer revolution were nice. But the history of “industrial policy” (the formal term for government picking winners and losers) presents an almost uniform series of abject failures. If one thinks that the state’s indirect investment of $220 million will leave the venture fund managers to pick the winners free of state government influence, I can sell you a bridge that connects Brooklyn to lower Manhattan, and it’s a genuine antique.
Remember that country, what’s the name of it again…oh, yes, Japan. Japan had its Ministry of International Trade and Industry, and we can see what a great success that was. MITI was supposed to foster innovative government/industrial partnerships for investment. Sound familiar? But even the Japanese admit that such limited growth as they’ve had came from not following, rather than following, MITI’s directions. MITI favored the development of steelmaking in Japan, and disfavored such exports as autos and electronics. Japan now has three times the steelmaking capacity that it needs, with no native natural resources (iron ore, for example) with which to feed it even if there were market demand for more steel. Meanwhile, automobiles and electronics have been Japan’s landmark successes in international trade.
State government always characterizes these taxpayer-funded venture investments as the “but for” money, the funding without which a promising project would not go forward. That’s patently false. If a project is promising enough, the private sector will fund it.
Worse still, some economists claim that when government steps in with this type of investment, it doesn’t add any money to the pot of investment funds, but instead only displaces it, and that the funding so displaced is much larger than the government funds invested. That’s a net negative.
I’d just like to hear the Republican rationalization for having government making industrial policy and having state officials pick, or influence the picking of, winners and losers in the market.